Football is back. Nothing is better. I really tried to pay attention through the offseason this year. On a scale of 0 to 10, I’d give myself a 1.75, which is awful, but also pretty good considering I’m normally a zero.
Since it’s Week One, let’s make some predictions. (Tomorrow we can laugh at how bad a few of my predictions were last season.) Again, this is a stupid, worthless, time-consuming hobby. I have no idea why I’m still doing this. Nothing you say will make me question my life choices more than 15 years of writing this here blog for free.
1. The Los Angeles Chargers will be a playoff team. Jim Harbaugh doesn’t coach losers. He’s a winner. Maybe he knew about the cheating, maybe he didn’t. Doesn’t matter now. He won at San Diego. He won at Stanford. He won with the 49ers. He won at Michigan. Winning football games is what this man does.
2. The Houston Texans will NOT win the AFC South. The schedule is tough: Seven matchups against 2023 playoff teams in addition to traveling to the Jets and meeting division rival Colts and Jaguars four times (went 2-2 against them in 2023). More importantly, the hype is too much. Houston has been picked to win the division, get the AFC’s top seed and even reach the Super Bowl. I can’t remember a young team making that kind of leap after just one successful season.
3. Malik Nabers and Brian Johnson Jr. will surpass 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns. Over the last two decades, six LSU wide receivers were drafted in the first round of the NFL Draft. Nabers and Johnson Jr. were added to that list in 2024. Only one of those receivers failed to reach 70 receptions, 1,000 yards and 5 touchdowns in their rookie season (Craig Davis). [Okay, so Dwayne Bowe only had 995 receiving yards but that didn’t sound as impressive as 1,000. Please allow me this editorial exaggeration. Thanks.] “Oh man, Malik Nabers is trouble with that QB situation in New York.” FEAR NOT! While Ja’Marr Chaser, Justin Jefferson and Odell Beckham Jr. had the likes of Joe Burrow, Kirk Cousins and Eli Manning delivering the football, respectively, Bowe and Michael Clayton still got by despite subpar quarterback play. Bowe caught passes from Damon Huard and Brodie Croyle in 2007. Clayton had to rely on a dismal Brad Johnson and an aging Brian Griese in 2004. Johnson Jr. will be fine in Jacksonville and I think Nabers will be, too.
4. Jalen Hurts will win NFL MVP and the Eagles will be back in the NFC Championship Game. Homer pick? Yes, but hear me out… The Eagles brought in an offensive coordinator that made Dak Prescott an offensive machine and led one of the NFL’s top offenses year after year. He’s given Hurts more control of the offense and perhaps most importantly, created a buffer between Hurts and Nick Sirianni. The biggest question mark for this team is their pass rush. That could derail the Eagles return to the Super Bowl but it won’t be the offense. [When someone says a buffer between the head coach and quarterback is a good thing please understand they are blinded by love.]
5. Oh yeah, Saquon Barkley will finish the season with over 1,200 rushing yards, 450+ receiving yards and at least 12 touchdowns. Disclaimer: I’m a Penn State grad. Barkley is my favorite college player ever and now he’s on my beloved Eagles. The blinders are on 100%. But let’s not forget how great Barkley is and how bad his environment has been for most of his NFL career. He’s played with aging/bad quarterbacks, limited weapons and horrible offensive lines. The Eagles have an MVP-quality quarterback, perhaps the best wide receiving trio in the league and a perennially great offensive line. If Barkley can stay healthy (admittedly a big “if”), he will eat.
6. The San Francisco 49ers do not get to ten wins. This is the 2024 bad vibes team. Kyle Shanahan is a great coach but pinning the Super Bowl loss on his defensive coordinator was a bad look. (Yes, that’s pretty much what he did.) Multiple contract holdouts = bad vibes. Christian McCaffrey with a calf injury to start the season = bad vibes. Elijah Mitchell done for the season… already… again = bad vibes. Horrible cap situation AND they have to pay their quarterback = bad vibes. First round pick to miss four games because he was shot while shopping in the team’s home city = really bad vibes. Last time Shanahan and the 49ers lost the Super Bowl they went 6-10 the next season.
6b. Aaron Rodgers will play less than 12 games, the Jets will then trade for Kirk Cousins, still miss the playoffs and Robert Saleh will be fired. Just kidding. Kind of.
7. I hate this one, but I can’t see it any other way: Mike Tomlin finishes 2024 with a losing record, the first of his awesome coaching career. Even a great coach like Tomlin can’t sustain another year of horrible quarterback play. Russell Wilson will not get it done, especially in that division. Justin Fields will bring a spark but he’s not an NFL quarterback. Even worse, the Steelers will appear on their way to another winning season at the halfway point before a brutal 2nd half schedule seals their fate. Look at this gauntlet over the final eight weeks: BAL, @CLE, @CINC, CLE, @PHI, @BAL, KC, CINC. Not sure how you even get to 3-5 over that stretch with Wilson or Fields under center.
8. The Kansas City Chiefs will three-peat and win the Super Bowl. The Chiefs were not very good in 2023 and they still found a way to repeat. Patrick Mahomes, Travis Kelce and Andy Reid received most of the credit last year but it was the defense that carried that team through the postseason. The defense lost some key pieces but they’ll be healthier now than they were a year ago and the offense added some intriguing weapons. Mahomes even had a down year in 2023. That won’t happen again.
*****
Thursday Night Pick; Chiefs -2.5 (Usually I take the road dog here because it just means more to them but the Ravens have a new defense and the Chiefs won't lose a home opener again.)
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